All right, get ready. Thank you for listening to the ESBC Betting and financial Podcast where the purpose. Every podcast is a business meeting. Every business mini has a hell of a purpose in an outcome where the purpose is to make me money and also to make you money with insight. You’re not getting anywhere else. Betting on NFL games, right?
And were ended up to 77% MBA and we’d gotten like the Last 11 out of 14 baseball. So what we’re doing here is we’re making ourselves money and we’re making you money. And we’re collaborating last night. What we did the NFL podcast, we got great information from the folks on Periscope. Really appreciate that.
And that’s the, that’s the aspect of Sports Betting is different than any other gambling that it’s Sports Betting people that you barely know, you randomly meet will give you an insight into Betting. So I’ve had great days that the sports books in some people haven’t had great days and they bet a lot and they come by you and they don’t even know you.
And they’d go in and give you a bunch of drink tickets. And a, I always thought that’s been awesome about being in a Sports book. And then, you know, the way you present yourself, you know, you present yourself with a little bit of warmth and you’re laughing and you having a good time, right? Because our system of Betting that we have here, the ESBC podcast is built on not only making money off the games, right?
Where at 64.5, again, a Sports Betting on NFL games, 52.5 is break even.
Okay. So we’re banking Money on the game. If we were having fun, I’m getting texts from all over the country. I just got a message on Facebook from a college classmate of mine. Who’s living in Vermont and the New Hampshire, they just legalized Sports and we connected over Sports Betting. So it’s not just making money on the game gambling.
It’s also the comradery. And it’s also sharing information in getting insight to make even more money and insight on culture as well. So I had a few business things come off in, I fell behind on the wrap-ups, but we’re catching up. This podcast is going to be about week four, that I have to a have a meeting. And then I’ll do Wrap up for week five.
So on the Podcast, what we do is we execute the Hawthorne Effect I have an MBA. This is client’s that I give information to. So they make more money in business and we always use the Hawthorne Effect right? Whatever you track and measure, you improve its performance by 10 to 20%. So if I’m a 55% better in, I analyze the games, I can get up to that 70%. That’s why we called the Podcast 70%. I
We want to get from our 64%, that we’ve been the last couple of years, making money, watching games want to get up to 70%. That is where I am, with NBA in college football, college football right now where at 67%.
So we’re making money off a Picks . It is illegal for me to charge for Picks because I’m in the financial services industry. So we’re having a lot of fun and what we do here, if we give away information to you .
If you gave Action Sports $400 a month a you wouldn’t get as good as information as you’re getting from us. All right. So we always ask, and I haven’t asked the last couple weeks on the NFL Podcast is breaking in a couple new guys, but we got to start forward a to make sure we do the process.
The Hawthorne effect refers to a type of reactivity in which individuals modify an aspect of their behavior in response to their awareness of being observed.
The result of the is process is that you improve outcomes by 10 to 20%
So to execute this process and make compound interest between 52.5% and 80% you ask yourself the question What did I get wrong last week that I should have gotten right ?
I went I went 19 at 11 last week.
Was I had Las Vegas at home, plus three and over 54. So the overs have been pretty easy to hit this year, but I didn’t factor in that salesmen thinks short term businesswomen think longterm.
And believe me, John Gruden is a great businessman. It makes 10 million a year. Right? So he was looking ahead to the next Week right? Because division games count for two in the standings. Old school guys like Gruden and Andy Reid prioritize division games.
Some Raiders had to receivers that were banged up. You know, if it was a division game that we would have played, but since it was not a division game, they didn’t play, but not the overall attitude.
The result is that the Buffalo game in Vegas was not as important as Kansas city game the next week against his friend Reid
We have on the podcast people who actually play professional sports and coaches. Take a listen to the interview we had with Houston Baptist Head Coach Vic Shealy who’s dad was the offensive coordinator at Auburn and as defensive coordinator at UNLV beat Arizona State when they were ranked 15th in the nation and was coached by multiple national championship coach Dennis Erickson
During the pandemic coach Shealy had a 3 game season and he mentioned on the Podcast how he could use more of the playbook since he did to have to save plays or in his words” keep plays in his back pocket; for conference games later in the season”
So that team you saw Against Buffalo was not the team you saw the next this against Kansas city. If you had more plays more strategy, he’s been studying Kansas city since March, right? Because that game counts for two and is even more valuable again because of the confidence for his team. So I should have saw that I should have had Buffalo all the way.
So using Hawthorne Effect I needed to ask myself before the game who do they play next? I needed to know that. With owning and being 100% responsible for the success of 3 businesses and you handicap games during the week ; you remember old handicapping tools as the year goes on.
And is that, does that coach have that philosophy of Gruden has a philosophy, but another guy Stephan NASCA in Cleveland might not write their analytics. Who knows what they’re thinking. So goes back to rule number three of Betting never a bet blindly. https://wp.me/pgcnL-2m
You always do your research in front of mental announces is corporate governance. So you look at that. Another game I got wrong that I should’ve gotten right. Was Houston, Minnesota, Houston coach got fired. They were not ready to go. They were not ready to go at all again, do your research, but it’s tough, right? It’s better to do research with East coast teams.
Sometimes West coast team’s, even though the West coast has gotten soft, East coast is better. They tell you what’s really going on. Texas is very conservative. They might put in their back pocket that O’Brian was having screaming matches with JJ watt and everybody else, you know, breaking down Wright. And he would on the verge of getting fired. But the team was playing strange, man. You know, you, Andrew hopkins’ is not a guy you get rid of. Right?
I knew things were going South in Houston when they had that fake plant and that messed up the playoff game. And then coming back to get rid of the Andre, Deanna, in your hand, he is not a guy. You get rid of the reason you don’t because regardless of what you’re paying him, he goes to Houston and bys, you know, 30,000 sneakers for the kids, right?
So he creates value for himself being such a good guy in the community, right. Being such a good citizen. And you got to give credit to dabble Sweeney in Columbia. A the guys that get out of there is a really straight up good guys, you know, valuable guys. So that was going to have the number one pick as well.
Again, this Year Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. You don’t give rid of guys like that under any circumstances. And then Houston being the 10th largest city in the world. I know the dad died McNair still. You have the money to pay the Mann pay. The man is a good guy. Don’t get rid of them. You’re gonna go South.
And how the game I got wrong that I should have gotten right with Dallas minus four Against Cleveland. Oh, you got to make adjustments. Right? I had been 26 to nine. Betting against the analytics teams. Cause they analytics. It’s not work in football. You can use it as a tool to come up with the right decision, but you can’t let it make the decision for him.
I know David Tepper, big analytics guy now with a Carolina, he picked stocks right at 59%. And he had a hedge fund. So that man, you know, he ended up with $3 billion and re wrote a huge, a hedge fund. Right. But that doesn’t necessarily translate to football. He has Matt rule and they’re doing actually a great job with managing that team.
And Stephanie Husky in Cleveland with the Podesto the guy from Moneyball, you know, they believe in hardcore math, hardcore analytics, right. To set up the structure of the organization. And to this point they hadn’t been covering. Right. I had, I had been making the money. So I have to make the adjustment. Now a I’m still making money with Detroit Detroit’s in the analytic team.
But again, Matt, Patricia made it very interesting comment. Matt Patricia said that, ah, you know, analytics makes the decision for right, the crazy decisions for, to it’s a, and that’s a wrong way to view analytics, analytics. This should not make the decisions for you. Is there a tool to make a decision?
And from the reading, I’ve done research. That’s what that role is doing in a Carolina and Stephanie Husky in Cleveland, kind of mixed up a staff. He has a guy like bill count, Callahan offensive line. Coach has been a several Superbowls. You know, every time he’s an assistant somewhere that the team goes to the super bowl.
He’s a great, probably one of the greatest offensive line coaches of all time. He was the head coach, ah, the Raiders, when they lost to John Gruden back in the day, then he went to Nebraska on a big contract, back to the NFL and he’s with Cleveland.
And I think he, the difference maker in Cleveland, maybe he’s neutralizing the analytics and Stephanie
. And I was very skeptical of Stephanie. Bosky that’s the way you pronounce this name. You got to look that up, but because he really did not run the offense Minnesota it’s run by Kubiak is a good friend of Zimmer. He was really running you off this guy. Obviously the interviews, well you networks. Well, I didn’t think he was going to be that great of a head coach, but he is. And he has a lot of support. And I think getting an ex head coach stabilizer like bill Callahan is very important.
And Bill Callahan is a hundred percent anti analytics. So that leads me to believe that the management structure with Cleveland is using analytics in the right way. Whereas a factor making the decision, but not making the decision. How do you ensure a result? Same way in Betting you eliminate variables and Kobe, right? So I have to make that adjustment. This is not last year’s Cleveland. You know, with Freddie kitchens, from Alabama, he had no idea what analytics was and who knows what was going on. They’re a, he’s a running back coach somewhere. I always thought he was a running backs, a coach type guy. He is not that Free the kitchens, a Cleveland, this a bill Counihan taking charge at that office with a line and really getting them ready to play. And it, you know, you could try the line of scrimmage. We control the game, right? You have a Houston, Dallas and Cleveland, two games that I got wrong that I should have gotten. Correct. Another one was the ramps Ram to the minus 13 against the giants. Again, a non division game. A, the Rams definitely kept a lot of things in their back pocket. They didn’t really have to worry to much about the New York giants offense. 13 was too many points. So I should’ve gotten that one. Right. All right, Chicago at home on a Thursday night, a home teams are 80%, right? You saw that Tuesday night, a little bit midweek games. The home team is 80% and Chicago plus For Tampa Bay is not as good as people are hyping em, up to be a, but you know, global warming is real man. A that heat factor is making those Florida team is a little bit better than what that should be. Especially at home like a half second, half lines. I’m a hundred percent so far this year in the last five years, that statistic is 80%. And I’ve been doing this for probably 10 years, but for the last years I’ve been tracking it a lot more. And the second half line for Florida teams, I’m 80%. So with global warming, now I’m seeing, you know, 90, 95, which when I lived in Florida for 20 years, but you never saw it. The weather be 90, 95 with, you know, 85% humidity in the, in the middle of October, you would get them maybe the last week of September 1st week of October. But by October. And I remember this because it used to be the big argument in my house because Ana Tober the 15th, right? My dad used to turn off the air conditioning of Florida in. You argue with my mom, you know, we still need for another week, but now we’re sitting out on October 15th, man in its 95, 80% humidity, Tampa Bay, second half line. But Tampa Bay went to Chicago. A, you know, Chicago, the bucks Defence is overrated, even though they got a, you know, Vienna, Vale’s playing really well. First round draft pick out of Washington, took them to the playoffs. Lavante David’s is playing really well. A white from LSU is playing a really well, but that secondary was really younger. So if you come with the offense, it isn’t that great. But neither is even though Tampa Bay paid a lot of money for the office of mine, they haven’t played the level of money they’re being paid. So look for that. Look for that. Detroit did not cover the four points or did cover the four points against the Arizona. It’s a, a grudge game. So that was an extra edge there with Matt Patricia. So that I should’ve gotten that one. Right? So I have four games that I left on the table. Right? So by executing the process, Week For right again in 19, Picks right. I could have been 23. I could have been 23 out of a 30, which is 77%, which would be optimal. Right? That’s the best you can do. Now, probability theory says that you can only get up to 80% certainty on anything really. So 77%, that is about as good as you can get Betting and the way you get that, it’s what we do on the Wrap up the Hawthorne Effect do your research. A it’s embarrassing for men write where the Hunter gatherers were, the leaders of the family we’re supposed to be right all the time. Father knows best. So it’s very painful. It’s a brutal process is a humiliating process. Send a embarrassing process to look at your biases and what’s wrong with your thinking, right? But you gotta do it even though it’s brutal. You gotta do it in order to make money in order to optimize your decision. All right. So that is week four NFL Rappoff. Why is that? Remaining have to have a purpose in our outcome. The purpose is to make money, any outcome right now it’s 64%, 52.5%. Its Breakeven that we always close would with sin. Churchill, what Winston Churchill said, you make a living from your labor, but you are making life from what you give. Thank you for listening to the ESBC Sports Betting in financial Podcast.